Delayed Reaction

Case

The fever spreads beyond the wedding, and the mayor asks when it will peak.

What this scene will ask

Renewal model with reporting delays, a fixed generation interval, and supplied posterior draws.

Planned flag: first day the posterior median Rt falls below 1; posterior probability that Rt is below 1 that day, 3 dp; posterior median Rt on the last day, 2 dp.

Status

[#] Sealed. This scene opens when it is written and passes review. Nothing on CTFEpi expires, so there is no rush.