Prior Predictive Panic

Case

Vale wants the Board to borrow strength from earlier trials, and Kastner wants to know what the priors are doing.

What this scene will ask

Four candidate priors for a logistic model.

Planned flag: the prior whose prior predictive distribution puts most mass on implausible risks; that mass, 3 dp; the 99th percentile of prior predictive risk under the sensible prior, 3 dp; both closed form.

Status

[#] Sealed. This scene opens when it is written and passes review. Nothing on CTFEpi expires, so there is no rush.